Recently, Meta Universe and GameFi have become the focus of the industry. Mining, which has been paid attention to by many people, has not been paid attention to. Obviously, the country’s ban on mining has begun to take effect. Outside of mining, there are no companies that continue to mine. In addition, for mining, the current computing power of the entire network is close to returning to the previous high. It can be seen that the deployment speed of mining companies is still very fast, and the de-sinicization of computing power has been successfully completed. The prices of mining machines and computing power graphics cards in the market have also begun to rise slowly. On August 25th, TSMC, a global foundry company, announced their price hikes. Among them, advanced processes increased by 10% and mature processes increased by 20%. The news came that TSMC’s stock price rose immediately, and the lack of cores is also known as everyone. The focus of discussion. Obviously, the background of this price increase is mainly due to the re-population of the new crown mutant virus. According to multiple data, the delta virus may cause the second small peak of the new crown infection. Also because of this, the chip production intensive enterprises such as Taiwan, China , South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and other factories were affected, of which Malaysia was the most serious, which caused a large number of auto companies to reduce or even stop production. In fact, since the outbreak of the new crown, TSMC has hardly increased prices in the industry. The price increase this time is mainly due to the fact that its prices under the same process are lower than other companies, such as semiconductor companies such as Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., obviously. It is unreasonable in itself. TSMC has actually maintained a relatively low price in the industry. In other words, there is a certain amount of room for price increases. Looking back, in fact, for chip companies, the current price increase is also a relatively helpless behavior. TSMC’s price increase will further make it possible for the industry to have expectations of competing price increases. Therefore, the cost of chip prices will be further transmitted to the downstream industry. At present, the price increase of chip companies has been considered a certainty, and in the short term, it cannot be alleviated. For the mining industry, the clearing of China's mining machines is actually more like an overall reshuffle. The previous crackdown on the mining industry can ease the tension in power use on the one hand, and on the other hand, it also prompts mining machine manufacturers to temporarily reduce production capacity, avoid competition with chip demanders in other industries, and prevent financial risks. This is a multi-tasking thing in itself, but the rapid spread of delta virus has put pressure on the chip field. Of course, for miners, what is more concerned is how the mining circle will change in the second half of the year? First of all, the price increase of chips will inevitably be transmitted to the downstream industry chain. Therefore, the price increase of mining machines is inevitable. Even if some mining machines do not use advanced processes, they will eventually change with the overall adjustment of the chip industry. . Secondly, we see that the computing power of the entire network has gradually returned to normal, that is to say, the shuffling behavior of computing power has been completed. , In particular, graphics card mining will become the mainstream, while high-noise ASIC mining machines such as Bitcoin and Litecoin may continue to flow out. In other words, mining companies can only have two outlets if they want to be in the Chinese market, namely, graphics card computing power and low-power silent miners. In addition, considering that the sale of individual miners may increase after-sales costs in the future, large-scale mining companies may abandon the Chinese market and directly serve users in other countries.
Third, we know that an important reason for the country's ban on mining in June is carbon emissions, environmental protection and power shortages. After the autumn in September, the peak period of power in most areas has passed, and the rainfall in some areas has increased, so hydropower will still be relatively low. Large-scale abandonment of electricity may increase the pressure on China's power industry. From the perspective of price increases, in the next one or two years, the price trend of chips may be positively related to the control of the epidemic, and even if the epidemic is controlled, the expected demand for a large number of electronic product upgrades will continue to increase the shortage of chips. It is precisely because of this that, theoretically, the demand for chips will still increase. Regarding the bull market of cryptocurrencies and the trend of graphics chips, we believe that during the period from May to August, there may be a certain bubble in the trend of graphics cards like a roller coaster, but such a bubble behavior will not be due to the market's bearish price next year. Decline, so for users who want to continue to buy graphics cards, waiting at the moment may not be a good choice. Although from the perspective of the performance of the crypto market, after the implementation of EIP-1559, the output of Ethereum has decreased by about 20%, and the currency price has been under pressure after the short-term price increase. The income of the graphics card miners may not improve. For miners of other currencies, the performance is not very good, so is there really no chance for mining in the later period? In fact, this is not the case. From another point of view, in fact, the real industry will still have relatively small opportunities to make money in the future. The country vigorously promotes high-tech industries and clean energy industries, leaving most of the manufacturing industry on the edge of profit and loss, so its situation is also not tolerated. Ignore, and under the premise of the large-scale release, the price of a large number of commodities has increased. Therefore, for users who invest in graphics cards for mining, it is still a good time, but the individual is only a small play. , Unable to become a scale, instead the mining industry will form a wave of rapid development. Summarize Combined with China’s attack on mining, although the short-term power shortage has been alleviated, the surplus of electricity after the fall is still worthy of attention. For now, the price increase of chips makes mining machines have a certain value preservation function, so for For the mining industry, it is still a good time. At the same time, most people are optimistic about the currency price increase at the end of the year. Although it is currently impossible to predict the currency price trend at the end of the year, mining is still a good investment method during this period. Of course, its investment Income will decline in the short term due to factors such as power and overseas layout. However, in the long run, the life cycle of mining machines will continue to be extended under the background of core shortage, so the mining industry still has high competitiveness.
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